Online Khabar
Kathmandu, October 6. What to do if the Nepali Congress conspires against the plan to make KP Oli the prime minister? This question surfaced during a meeting of top CPN-UML leaders.
“Congress is not a bankable party, it has cheated us several times in the past,” UML leader Bamdev Gautam said.
After this, the UML formed a talks team for government formation under Oli’s leadership. The party will follow Plan B, if the Nepali Congress throws cold water on its original plan to head a coalition government comprising itself, the Congress and the UCPN-Maoist. If the NC turns hostile, the UML will try to garner a majority of votes in the House from other parties.
What alternative does the UML have if the Congress turns hostile? UML leaders have done their mathematics to deal with this situation.
“We will still have a comfortable majority even if the Congress does not support us. But we do not want to quit consensus-based politics,” UML leader Bishnu Poudel said.
Based on information that Online Khabar has received, it appears pretty clear that Oli can become the prime minister if the UCPN-Maoist wants, even if the Congress does not support his bid.
The Legislature-Parliament has 598 lawmakers. A candidate has to garner 299 votes to become the PM. Some leaders say UML has 302 votes, which will be enough to make Oli the prime minister. Still, it will be a marginal majority. A government with a slim majority can topple anytime.
In the Parliament, the UML (183 seats) and the UCPN-Maoist (83) have a combined strength of 266 seats. To make Oli the PM, UML will require 33 more votes. The party will have to appease several fringe parties if it cannot count on the RPP-Nepal.
Several fringe parties have stood in favour of Oli. RPP, which has 12 seats, has said it will vote for Oli this time. With the RPP-Nepal on its side, the UML will require 21 seats.
CP-Mainali, Oli’s comrade-in-arms since the Jhapa movement, has said five lawmakers from his party will support the UML leader. This means the UML will have to ready 16 more lawmakers to vote in its favour.
Nepal Workers’ and Peasants’ Party and Rastriya Janamorcha, with four and three lawmakers, have said they will vote for Oli in the prime ministerial race. With their support, Oli will require nine more votes to become PM.
The UML has got assurances from small parties for the crucial support. Of them, CPN (United) has three lawmakers, Parivar Dal has two, Janamukti Party (Democratic) has two, Samajvadi Party has one and Madhesh Samata Party has one lawmaker. If they all vote in his favour, Oli will get 299 votes.
Akhanda Nepal Party, Nepali Janata Dal, Bahujan Samaj Party and Dalit Janajati Party have one vote each. They all are likely to vote for Oli. It’s unclear whether Nepa: Party and Khambuwan Party, which have one vote each, will vote for Oli.
Small parties’ wish
Online Khabar talked to small parties, from whom the UML hopes has sought support in the prime ministerial race. Most of these parties said the three parties some stay united and make Oli prime minister, as per the gentleman’s agreement.
Even some Madheshi parties and Janajati parties seem ready to vote Oli to power, despite the latter’s alleged anti-Madheshi and anti-Janajati image. And all communist parties represented in the Parliament are supporting Oli.
Prachanda and Gachhadar’s plans
UML leaders claim the Congress had pledged to make Oli prime minister after promulgation of the constitution while singing a 16-point agreement that elevated Sushil Koirala to the top post.
Right after the earthquakes, leaders, including Prachanda and Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar, had agreed to make Oli prime minister by deeming incumbent Sushil Koirala incapable, according to UML deputy general secretary Bishnu Poudel.
At that time, Oli had said the Congress should be in the government for constitution promulgation, Poudel told Online Khabar. Prachanda and Gachhadar know Koirala had pledged to make Oli prime minister in the future, while signing the 16-point deal, said Poudel.
Wait and watch
The fourth largest party in the Parliament, RPP-Nepal, is on wait and watch mode. If a government comprising three major parties take shape, party President Kamal Thapa flex muscles in the House in the capacity of main opposition.
If a situation arises, in which either the Congress or the UML will have to stay in the opposition, RPP-Nepal will vote for the party that will form the government. Party General Secretary and lawmaker, Bikram Pandey, said RPP-N is in favour of making Oli the prime minister.
Gachhadar’s problem
In the ongoing political game for power, agitating Madheshi and Tharu parties do not appear to be taking sides. However, leaders close to Oli say Gachhadar is with Oli in this race. But Gachhadar is unlikely to openly lobby for Oli unless the government addresses demands of the Madhesh movement.
Three major parties are still trying to cobble together a unity government. Such a dispensation is a must for amending the constitution, implementing it and facing difficulties that lie ahead.
Even if the Congress does not support Oli’s prime ministerial aspirations and the UCPN-Maoist does, majority of lawmakers will still be in Oli’s favour, it appears.
